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FORECAST OF NATURAL GAS MARKET YIELD BASED ON DATA ANALYSIS
XIANG Youtao, CAO Lin
Resources & Industries
2021, 23 (1):
79-86.
DOI: 10.13776/j.cnki.resourcesindustries.20201211.001
This paper, based on Americas natural gas price from 2000 to 2018, establishes DTW-SVM-SA(dynamic time warping-support vector machine-simulated annealing) combined model to forecast the natural gas price. It also compares the DTM-SVM-SA modeling results with comparison modeling results at different intervals, and evaluates its forecasting accuracy and error. Simulated annealing algorithm can optimize the free parameters of SVM and weight parameters of the combined model. DTM-SVM-SA model shows a good generalized capacity in forecasting natural gas yield, with outstandingly rising accuracy at difference intervals and decreasing error, which is an effective gas price forecasting model. DTW-SVM-SA model can not only provide references for governmental macroscopic controls, but also help enterprises better forecast and manage risks in price changes, especially for energy enterprises.
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